Market Info
Alfonso Lacruz
MERCADO INMOBILIARIO DE LA COSTA DEL SOL: BAJAN ...

Inventory. Now that we have more transactions, how is it changing?

As I explained the first time that I published inventory or stock figures, the data is not official but taken from different real estate web pages and databases of properties. The number will never be exact but what I am really looking for is the tendency.

I have to say that the tendency observed surprised me. There are more properties in the market now than six months ago.



When I wrote my previous article on the stock of properties at the beginning of 2014 and with the data of 2013, the index seemed to go the right way: more transactions and less inventory. However this tendency has changed in 2014 where we are having even more transactions but the inventory is also going up. In some cases, like villas in Marbella and Benahavis, the up tendency is remarkable with increases in the range of 20% since the start of the year.

The reason for that may be that since there is a perception on the market that the we are starting to leave the worst moments of the crisis behind, and it is true that we are seeing signals of a change, the owners that have been waiting during the “bad” years to put their properties on the market have decided to come out now. Contrary to the conclusion of the article I wrote in January where I commented that less inventory would push the prices up, the conclusion now would be the opposite: more inventory means more where to choose from for potential buyers and a brake to the recovery of the prices. This goes in line with the different comments and analysis from real estate experts: we are seeing signals of recovery on the market and the price index will change its tendency soon but the recovery will be slow and moderate.

The RE/MAX Eralia Housing Market Report for the Costa del Sol / Informe de RE/MAX Eralia sobre el Mercado Inmobiliario de la Costa del Sol

Please take a look to the 1st quarter RE/MAX Eralia Housing report for the Costa del Sol. There are lots of interesting pieces of information to understand how the real estate market of the Costa del Sol is behaving.

El informe del primer trimestre sobre el Mercado Inmobiliario de la Costa del Sol ya esta disponible. Hay mucha información muy interesante para poder entender que esta pasando en el mercado inmobiliario.



Royal Gardens (Nueva Andalucía, Marbella - Costa del Sol)

Fantastic apartment in ground floor for sale in Nueva Andalucía. Situated in one of the best areas in Marbella, within a short 10 minutes’ walk to the beach and Puerto Banús. Close to Centro Plaza shopping center with fashion boutiques, hairdressers, banks, restaurants, etc. It comprises 2 bedrooms and 2 baths, a cozy kitchen and a living-room with dinning-area which leads to a large private porch with an amazing garden with one of the largest swimming pool of the area to enjoy the southern sun however old you are.

Fantástico apartamento en planta baja en venta en Nueva Andalucía. Situado en una de las mejores zonas de Marbella, a tan solo 10 escasos minutos andando a la playa y a Puerto Banús y al lado del famoso Centro Plaza con excelentes tiendas de moda, restaurantes, bancos, etc. Consta de 2 dormitorios y 2 baños, una pequeña cocina y un salón comedor con acceso a un pequeño porche y a un jardín comunitario enorme, con una de las piscinas más largas de la zona donde poder disfrutar del sol del Sur.

  • Beds/baths: 2 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms
  • Built size: 97,02 m2
  • Terrace size: 22,24 m2
  • Price: 199.500 Euros

See dossier / Ver folleto
















El mercado en Marbella / Benahavís: más transacciones y precios bajando

El Ministerio de Fomento acaba de publicar el nuevo índice de precios para Marbella y Estepona mostrando una vez más una tendencia a la baja en el primer trimestre del 2014. Aunque los precios muestran signos de estabilización lo cierto es que todavía siguen bajando.




Casi a la vez, el Ministerio ha publicado los datos sobre las transacciones cerradas en Marbella y Benahavís mostrando un importante incremento. Qué conclusión podríamos sacar y como encajaría con el menor número de compradores que marcan las estadísticas? Podría no ser tan difícil: hay menos compradores pero los que hay están más predispuestos a comprar y siguen haciendo ofertas a la baja que se aceptan para poder cerrar. Si el mercado sigue esta misma tendencia con el número de transacciones al alza, el inventario seguirá bajando y, finalmente, los precios llegarán a su punto de inflexión y empezarán a subir. Mirando diferentes informes de expertos inmobiliarios, las fechas de una posible recuperación varían desde el final del 2015 al 2019 pero aún así creo que es difícil predecirlo. Había mucho optimismo en el principio de este año 2014 pero, ya es mitad de año, aún es muy complicado vender. En 2012 y 2013, el verano fue la mejor época, a ver si en este 2014 se repite.

The market in Marbella / Benahavis: more transactions & less price

The new price index for Marbella and Estepona have just been released by the Ministry of Housing showing again a low tendency in the first quarter of 2014. Although prices are showing signals of stabilization, the truth is that they are still falling down.




At the same time, the Ministry has released the data on the number of transactions closed in Marbella and Benahavis showing important increases. What would be then the conclusion and how does it fit with the reduced number of buyers we are noticing?

I think we have an easy one: there are less buyers but are more ready to buy and still making low offers for properties that are being accepted just to be able to close. If the market keeps on going in the same line, i.e. with the number of transactions increasing, the stocks will continue to go down and prices will finally reach the inflexion point and will start to rise. I have seen different reports from real estate experts giving different dates for the recovery (from the end of 2015 to 2019) but it is difficult to say. We were quite optimist for 2014 and, now, half of the year is gone and the market is still quite complicated. The summers of 2012 and 2013 were quite good and we hope that this year will be at least as good. Time will tell...

How is the real estate activity at Marbella & Benahavis in 2014?

Although the sense of optimism was great in the real estate field around Marbella at the beginning of this year, I am feeling lately that that sense has changed. Things are still quite tough and I have received many comments about how complicated is the market and about the reduced number of operations in the months of April and May. In fact, when talking yesterday with one of the big Notary offices of Marbella, they mentioned the same: a reduction in activity in the last two months.

To try to measure the activity, I have created two indexes based on the number of internet leads and visits per property and month and weighted depending on the type of property (villas will, in general, get let visits and leads than apartments) to get an idea of the tendency of the activity. The following is the chart obtained for those two indexes:



It shows clearly what has been my feeling during the year: a peak of activity at the end on February and beginning of March and a slow down since then. Why? I do not really know. The general economic situation is getting better all around Europe, the prices are flat in Marbella and the number of transactions rose last year meaning that the activity should have increased but it is not the case. As I said, we were quite optimistic with the start of the year but the numbers are showing the we have still to work hard to keep on closing operations. We will see in fifteen days with the official data on the transactions closed in Marbella in the first quarter if the general numbers are similar to the ones I am having: less activity but more closings. That has been my general impression along this year: there are less buyers but of better "quality".

Cumbre de los Almendros (Benahavís - Costa del Sol)

Luxury apartment for sale in Puerto del Almendro, Benahavís. Spacious and luminous is notable for its wonderful finishes in every detail, the modern baths and its fully fitted kitchen with top class appliances. Location is just perfect in a quiet complex at only 5 minutes to San Pedro de Alcantara and 9 to Puerto Banus. A modern living room with a large window that gives access to a generous terrace offering breathtaking views of the Mediterranean sea to enjoy the sun until nightfall.


Lujoso apartamento en venta en Puerto del Almendro, Benahavís. De estilo contemporáneo, destaca principalmente por sus excelentes acabados, sus impecables cuartos de baño, su cocina de alta gama y su luminosidad. La ubicación es perfecta en una tranquila urbanización consolidada a tan solo 5 minutos de San Pedro de Alcántara y 9 de Puerto Banús. Tiene un amplio y moderno salón con un ventanal que da salida a una gran terraza con increíbles vistas panorámicas al mar Mediterráneo donde disfrutar de maravillosas puestas de sol.

  • Beds/baths: 2 bedrooms & 2 bathrooms
  • Built size: 98,68 m2
  • Terrace size: 38,04 m2
  • Price: 249.000 Euros


See dossier / Ver folleto













Valdeolletas, 16 (Marbella - Costa del Sol)

Excellent 1.096 m2 plot for sale in the heart of Marbella. It is located in a very traditional and quiet urbanization between free-standing single-family homes with fenced gardens and mature greenery, just a few minutes walking to the city center and the beach and at five minutes’ drive to Puerto Banús. Schools, restaurants, shops and a sport center with tennis, paddle, football, basketball, etc. is within one minute walking and makes this plot the ideal place for a sportive family and nature lovers.

Parcela de 1.096 m2 en el corazón de Marbella. Está situada en una urbanización muy tranquila y tradicional rodeada de casas unifamiliares con preciosos jardines, a tan solo algunos minutos andando al centro de la ciudad, a la playa y a tan solo cinco minutos en coche a Puerto Banús. Colegios, restaurantes, tiendas y un centro deportivo hacen de este lugar el sitio ideal para una familia deportiva y amante de la naturaleza.

  • Address: Valdeolletas, 16 - Marbella 
  • Plot Size: 1,096 m2 
  • Price: 1,000,000 euros 













Las zonas “prime” salen primero

Tras observar las leves señales de recuperación que muestra el mercado en Marbella, he estudiado si en otras localidades españolas se sigue la misma tendencia. 

Tomando como base otro artículo escrito por mi hace un año, he seleccionado tres grupos de datos: las grandes ciudades (Madrid, Barcelona, ​​Valencia y Sevilla), municipios de costa (Estepona, Roquetas y San Javier) y los municipios costeros de nivel medio/alto (Calvia, Adeje y Marbella). La lectura es distinta para cada uno de los grupos: los precios en las grandes ciudades siguen bajando aunque parece que el mercado está comenzando a cambiar su tendencia en Madrid y Barcelona, los precios en las localidades costeras están todavía bajando dramáticamente y solo en los municipios costeros de nivel medio/alto se están apreciando los signos de recuperación. Es notable el caso de Calvia en la costa sur de Mallorca, donde los precios mantienen la tendencia al alza desde hace un año. 

Las localidades “prime” son más seguras desde el punto de vista del inversor y siempre son las primeras en salir de las crisis. La historia de Marbella lo ha demostrado en infinidad de oportunidades.


                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      



Monte Golf, Los Almendros (Benahavís - Costa del Sol)

Luxury penthouse for sale in Benahavís. Spacious and Luminous it is notable for its wonderful finishes in every detail and the brightness of all rooms. Bathrooms with travertine marble, big modern showers and wooden floor. Fully fitted kitchen with the best appliances. High quality is all around. A modern living room with a large window that gives access to a generous terrace offering breathtaking views to enjoy the sun until nightfall.


Lujoso ático en venta en Benahavís. De estilo contemporáneo, se destaca principalmente por sus excelentes acabados y su luminosidad. Cuartos de baño revestidos de mármol Travertino, modernas duchas y suelos de madera. La cocina completamente amueblada con electrodomésticos de alta gama. Tiene un amplio y moderno salón con un ventanal que da salida a una terraza con increíbles vistas panorámicas donde disfrutar de una maravillosa puesta de sol.

  • Beds/baths: 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms
  • Built Size: 100,8 m2
  • Terrace Size: 24,05 m2
  • Price: 259.000 Euros

Top locations are getting out first

Following the signals of the slight recovery of the market in Marbella, I have investigated how other locations around Spain are doing compared to Marbella and Estepona. 

Going back to another article I wrote one year ago, I have selected three groups of data: big cities (Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia and Sevilla), coastal councils (Estepona, Roquetas and San Javier) and top level coastal municipalities (Calvia, Adeje and Marbella). From these three groups of data, the readings are different: the prices at the big towns are still dropping although it seems that the market is starting to change its tendency in Madrid and Barcelona, the prices at coastal councils are still dropping dramatically and only the top coastal locations are showing signs of recovery. It is remarkable the case of Calvia in the south west coast of Mallorca where the prices have been increasing steadily in the last year. 

Top locations are secure investments and always get out from this crisis first. The history of Marbella has shown it many times.






Colinas de Marbella (Benahavís - Costa del Sol)

Wonderful duplex in Benahavís. Presented in an excellent condition, it is notable for the lovely and spacious living room with fireplace, separate dining area, super-efficient kitchen, a full vanity bathroom and a large terrace with stunning views to the Mediterranean Sea. Down stairs there are two king size bedrooms with charming en-suite baths from where to enjoy the best views of the area. A commercial center is just few minutes away with many, bars and restaurants, pharmacy and a bank, most of which are open all year round and just at 10 minutes to Puerto Banús.


Fantástico apartamento en Benahavís. Muy luminoso y espacioso, cuenta en alta con un espacioso y luminoso salón y comedor aparte, cuarto de baño de buenísimas calidades, una cocina impecable y una gran terraza con espectaculares vistas panorámicas al mar. En planta baja tiene dos amplios dormitorios con cuarto de baño en-suite. Está situado a pocos minutos del centro comercial Monte Halcones y a 10 minutos de Puerto Banús.

  • Beds/baths: 3 bedrooms & 3 bathrooms
  • Built Size: 173,30 m2
  • Terrace Size: 71,80 m2
  • Price: 249.000 Euros

See dossier / Ver folleto














El Mercado ya esta mejorando.

Las cifras del Ministerio de Vivienda en el número de transacciones en Marbella y Benahavís confirman la tendencia que se ha estado observando recientemente: las cosas están definitivamente mejorando. 

Si se observa Benahavís y aunque el número de transacciones cerradas en el año 2013 es un poco más bajo que el de 2012 (un 11% menos), un año comparable a los años pre-crisis 2006 y 2007, el pasado año fue bueno estando un 18% por debajo del mejor año en la historia de la localidad, 2006. La tendencia se puede observar en el siguiente gráfico. 




Por otro lado, si se ve el gráfico que muestra las transacciones de Marbella, la tendencia es más que evidente. Todavía no se ha alcanzado el nivel de los años “buenos” pero estamos en camino. Esta información encaja perfectamente con la que publiqué el mes pasado en referencia al inventario de viviendas a la venta: el stock está disminuyendo porque el número de transacciones esta aumentando. 

La única variable negativa es que el precio de venta se ha mantenido estable o incluso muestra una pequeña tendencia a la baja, pero si el inventario sigue bajando, los precios comenzaran a subir.

En conclusión, parece que la tendencia está finalmente cambiando y, por mi parte, soy bastante optimista de cara al futuro. Nadie sabe si la recuperación será rápida o gradual pero ya está empezando. En el lado personal, tengo que decir que aunque 2013 fue mi mejor año desde que comencé en RE/MAX, mis impresiones para este principio del 2014 son similares a las que tuve el año pasado: todavía es muy complicado cerrar operaciones y todavía vender una propiedad requiere mucho trabajo.



Things are definitively getting better.

The numbers from the Ministry of Housing on the number of transactions for Marbella and Benahavis confirm the tendency we have been observing recently: things are getting better.

If we look at Benahavis and although the closed transactions for 2013 are slightly lower than the ones closed in 2012 (11% less), a year comparable to the pre-crisis 2006 and 2007 years, it has been a good year only a 18% below the best year in the history of the village, 2006. That situation can be seen on the attached chart.



On the other hand, if we look at the chart showing the information for Marbella, the tendency is more than evident. The levels of the “good” years have not been reached yet but we are on the way. This information matches with the one I published last month on the stock of properties for sale: the stock is going down because the number of transactions is increasing.

The only negative variable are the prices that are still flat with a slight down tendency but if the stock keeps on going down, the prices will start to go up.

In summary, I am quite optimistic for the future and seems that the situation is finally recovering. We do not know yet if that recovery is going to be fast or gradual but it is starting. On the personal side, I have to say that even though 2013 was my best year since I started with RE/MAX, my feeling for the beginning of 2014 is the same I had during 2013: it is still quite complicated to close operations and selling a property requires significant amounts of work. 







Las Jacarandas, La Quinta (Benahavís - Marbella - Costa del Sol)

Spectacular property in Benahavis that combines the pleasures of living on first line golf with the proximity to the sandy beaches, San Pedro de Alcantara and Puerto Banús. It comprises an ample living room with fireplace, kitchen, a spectacular garden on the golf, five beds (the impressive Master enjoys a fireplace and dressing area), four baths, private garage and plenty of storage. The consolidated complex offers not only the combination of golf and Mediterranean living but also a unique blend of peaceful natural surroundings with instant access to everything Marbella and the Costal del Sol has to offer.

Preciosa vivienda unifamiliar que combina el placer de vivir en un entorno espectacular como el Club de Golf de la Quinta con la proximidad a las playas de Marbella, San Pedro de Alcántara y Puerto Banús.  Dispone de un amplio salón con chimenea, cocina, espectacular jardín privado en primera línea de golf, cinco dormitorios (el principal disfruta de chimenea y vestidor), cuatro baños, garaje privado bajo la vivienda y mucho espacio de almacenamiento.  La urbanización está totalmente consolidada y está especialmente diseñada para aquellos que quieran disfrutar de la tranquilidad en una casa con muy buenos tamaños y a escasos minutos de todo lo que la Costa del Sol le puede ofrecer.

Ver folleto / View dossier


















Testimonials

March 7th, 2014


Dear Alfonso,

Thank you for sending me your newsletter by email.  I meant to ask if you could do that and forgot!

It goes without saying that if I hear of anyone wanting to sell I will absolutely refer them to you.  Your approach is the most professional I've ever seen especially when it comes to dealing with real estate. Sadly it's an industry that doesn't seem to have a particularly professional approach no matter where you are in the world.

All very best regards and I may see you in April when I'm back again.

Sincerely,

RK

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 January 27th, 2014


Dear Alfonso,

 Hope that you are well and enjoying the glorious weather in Marbella. Not so great here in the UK.

I have not seen you to have the opportunity to say thank you for all your hard work and dedication in concluding the sale of our house.

Hope you have a successful year of further sales and hope to see you sometime in the future.

Kind regards,

AV

 ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 October 7th, 2013


Dear Alfonso,

Yes I did and I congratulate!!!

 I couldn't recommend anyone better than you.

 Thanks a lot, it was a pleasure to cooperate.

Kind regards,

LK

 ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 October 3rd, 2013
Hi Alfonso,

 We have just received your nice hand written note. Thank you.

 We too enjoyed our association with you both at a business and a personal level. You and your staff have been consistently efficient and courteous.

 We wish you and your family all the best of health and happiness, and we wish you every success in your business activities.

 Kind regards,

 JH

 ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
June 14th, 2013
Just wanted to thank you very much for all your continued efforts on our behalf. We really do appreciate it. It is very frustrating for you and us when people say they are going to make an offer then don't, as was the case this week, but nevertheless this certainly is not your fault!

Have a great weekend.

Kind regards

JB

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
April 30th, 2013


Me llamo Alfonso de Remax, queria agradecerte a ti que le me mantengas como agente de tu casa.

Alfonso es amigo mio y gran profesional.

Espero que se pueda vender pronto tu casa.

Un fuerte abrazo,
FB

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
November 8th, 2012
Once again Alfonso, thank you so much for everything you did to help me with the sale of my property. You were fantastic.

 Very best wishes,

 JB

______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

March 7th, 2014

Dear Alfonso,

 Thank you for sending me your newsletter by email. I meant to ask if you could do that and forgot!

 It goes without saying that if I hear of anyone wanting to sell I will absolutely refer them to you. Your approach is the most professional I've ever seen especially when it comes to dealing with real estate. Sadly it's an industry that doesn't seem to have a particularly professional approach no matter where you are in the world.

 All very best regards and I may see you in April when I'm back again.

 Sincerely,

 RK

El Stock de viviendas. ¿Cómo está variando?

Cuando se habla de la información del mercado inmobiliario, el dato del número de propiedades en venta siempre se ha ido quedando atrás puesto que no existe una información oficial fiable sobre el stock de viviendas en venta en Marbella y Benahavís. Con el fin de tener una idea de cómo evoluciona dicho inventario y de esa forma ver como puede afectar al mercado inmobiliario, he recopilado información de diferentes páginas web y bases de datos de propiedades que, aunque no me va a permitir saber el número exacto de propiedades en el mercado debido a que no todas las propiedades están contabilizadas y a que hay unidades repetidas, si me va a dar la tendencia y la distribución, que es lo que estoy buscando.

Los gráficos hablan por si solos: el inventario esta más o menos estable con una ligera tendencia a la baja, especialmente en Marbella. Se ve, por tanto, que este índice va en línea con el resto de los indicadores: leves bajadas de precios, leves bajadas en el stock y un aumento en el número de transacciones. En general, se puede intuir que la situación va mejorando pero que todavía queda mucho camino por recorrer. 




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