I keep getting asked the same question: prices going up, new developments keep launching at strong numbers, and clients want to know: are we walking into another 2008? The only honest answer is in the numbers. And the picture in Málaga right now looks nothing like it did twenty years ago. Three points explain why:
1. We're building far less, and there's a reason. Back in 2007, around 36,000 new homes were started in the province. In 2025, closer to 10,000. Less than a third. And it isn't just that developers got smarter after the crash, it's that building today is genuinely harder. Plots ready to build on are scarce and expensive. Construction is 32% more expensive than in 2020. Permits take their time. And no bank funds a project until you've presold six or seven homes out of every ten. Only projects that make sense from day one get off the ground. Flooding the market with empty homes, the way it happened fifteen years ago, is almost impossible today.
2. 85% of what gets built finds a buyer the same year. That's the number that matters most. Not how many homes are built, but how many actually sell. Right now, around 85 out of every 100 new homes finished in 2025 are sold within the same year. That's the sweet spot of a market: enough supply to keep things moving, enough demand to keep prices steady. And it's the second year running at that level, so it isn't a
fluke. We see it on the ground every week: priced right and wellpresented, homes sell. Priced badly, they sit. Buyers have stopped chasing.
3. Marbella tells the whole story. After several years of sharp increases, new build prices in Marbella have flattened, while resale prices have kept climbing and are now almost level with them. That's exactly how a healthy market behaves. When developers push too hard, buyers don't follow, they move across to well-located resale, and prices reset themselves. In the rest of the area, new build still trades above resale, €4,240/m² in Benahavís, €3,700/m² in Estepona, €3,595/m² in Mijas, but nothing that looks out of line.
My read: this is the healthiest the market has looked in years. Limited supply, real buyers, and prices that
adjust when they need to. The interesting question isn't whether prices will drop, it's how long supply stays this tight before demand finally catches up again.
