Market · New build
New-build prices on the Costa del Sol in 2025: bubble or healthy market?
It is better to answer with data, not hunches. The latest figures for Málaga tell a very different story from two decades ago.
SHORT ANSWER
Less than a third as many homes are being built as in 2007 (36,000 starts then, around 10,000 in 2025) and roughly 85% of what is completed each year sells. With that balance, it is very hard for the market to fill up with unsold homes as it did fifteen years ago.
IN THIS ARTICLE
With prices rising and new developments launching at high prices, I have been asked several times whether we are repeating the mistakes of 2008. Three facts explain it.
1. Far fewer homes are being built today
It is no coincidence, nor just developer caution: building is objectively harder today. Ready-to-build land is scarce and expensive, building costs 32% more than in 2020, licences are slow to arrive and banks only finance a project if six or seven out of every ten homes are already sold before starting. Only deals that add up from day one go ahead.
2. 85% of what is built sells
More important than how much is built is how much sells. Roughly 85 out of every 100 new homes completed in 2025 found a buyer in the same year. It is the healthy point of the market: empty homes do not pile up and prices do not run away. And it is the second year in a row at that level. It is also what we see every day: a well-presented home at a realistic price sells; buyers no longer accept any price.
| Year | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| % of what is built that sells | 130% | 75% | 50% | 80% | 110% | 75% | 85% | 85% |
Values above 100% indicate absorption of accumulated inventory. The balanced zone is between 70% and 110%.
3. What is happening in Marbella sums up the moment
After several years of sharp rises, new-build prices in Marbella have levelled off, while resale keeps rising and almost matches them. It is what a healthy market does: when developers push prices too hard, buyers do not follow, they move to well-located resale homes and the market adjusts by itself. Elsewhere, new builds cost more than resale, but without anything outlandish:
| New build, price per m² | €/m² |
|---|---|
| Benahavís | €4,240 |
| Estepona | €3,700 |
| Mijas | €3,595 |
The question is no longer whether prices will fall, but how much longer supply will stay this low.
Alfonso Lacruz
My reading: we are in a healthier market than in many years. Little is built, almost everything that is built sells and prices adjust by themselves when needed.
Frequently asked questions
Is there a bubble in Costa del Sol new builds?
The data says no: less than a third as many homes are being built as in 2007 and roughly 85% of what is completed each year sells.
Why is less being built?
Land is scarce and expensive, building costs 32% more than in 2020, licences are slow and banks require pre-sales of 60-70% before financing.
How much does a square metre of new build cost?
In this source, €4,240/m² in Benahavís, €3,700/m² in Estepona and €3,595/m² in Mijas.
About the author
Alfonso Lacruz
Naval engineer and market analyst. Over 25 years advising owners in Marbella and Benahavís. Publishes a monthly market analysis with Land Registry data.
The figures are indicative and every property is different: for a specific number, ask for a valuation of your home.
Sources: Málaga province data on homes started and sold; new-build prices by municipality. Own analysis. Last updated: 8 June 2026.
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