The latest figures from the Ministry of Housing for 2024 confirm a trend I’ve been highlighting for the past two years: while demand for newly built homes remains strong across the province of Malaga, construction is still lagging behindintensifying pressure on supply and prices. Let’s look at what the data shows and why this matters for buyers, investors, and homeowners.
1. Stock of New Homes Remains Historically Low: The red line in the chart represents the stock of newly built homes available on the market. After peaking during the 2008 crisis, that stock has steadily decreased. In 2024, the stock remains well below pre-crisis levels, despite a moderate recovery in construction activity. This is a key difference compared to the 2004–2007 bubble years, when oversupply became a systemic risk.
2. Construction Has Not Returned to Boom Levels: The number of homes being completed (blue bars) and initiated (red bars) in 2024 is still a fraction of the peak seen in 2005. Back then, over 40,000 units were finished in one year, and even 83.000 in 2003. In contrast, 2024 barely reaches a quarter of that. Developers today are more cautious, and financing is stricter—good news for market stability, but a bottleneck for supply.
GRÁFICO 1 - OBRA NUEVA TERMINADA FRENTE A VENDIDA – MALAGA
“We are in a market deïfned by low inventory, contro-lled construction, and sustained demand."
3. Sales Continue to Outpace Deliveries: The green line in the chart—showing the % of new units sold vs. units finished—remains close to or above 100% in recent years. This means more homes are being sold than delivered, reducing available inventory. This dynamic fuels competition for high-quality properties, especially in prime areas like Marbella and Benahavís.
4. Price Pressure is Inevitable: With demand exceeding supply, prices for new builds continue to rise. As highlighted in my June 2024 newsletter, new developments in Marbella have seen average annual price increases of 17.9% over the past three years. This contrasts with second-hand properties, which have grown at 9.2% per year. Investors seeking capital appreciation and lifestyle buyers prioritizing quality are driving this upward trend.
In summary, we’re not witnessing a 2008-style bubble—far from it. Instead, we are in a market defined by low inventory, controlled construction, and sustained demand. For those considering a purchase or investment, especially in sought-after areas like Marbella and Bena-havis, understanding these trends is crucial. The best opportunities are being snapped up quickly and at increasingly higher prices.
Article by:
Alfonso Lacruz