Market · Q4 2025
Marbella and Costa del Sol property market, Q4 2025: sell, buy or invest?
Sales fell, prices rose. The data does not take sides; the reader does.
SHORT ANSWER
In Q4 2025 the Costa del Sol delivered a contradiction: sales fell and prices rose. For the seller, a realistic price is rewarded; for the buyer, the room for negotiation is closing; for the investor, you have to look development by development, because Mijas is moving away from the other three markets.
IN THIS ARTICLE
The same figure reads differently depending on who you are. Here are the three views.
For the seller
The official figures are good: sale prices rose in all four municipalities and the gap between asking price and actual price is narrowing in Marbella, Benahavís and Estepona. That only happens when realistic sellers adjust to the market and ambitious ones do not. When a property has not moved for months, the problem is not the market: it is the price.
For the buyer
The real room for negotiation is closing. In Marbella, sale prices rose by 3.2% in the fourth quarter while asking prices rose by only 2.1%, which means the real market is growing faster than sellers' expectations. On properties that come to market correctly priced from day one, discounts are already minimal. The correction some buyers were expecting has not arrived. The key is selection: the right property in the right micro-area, rather than waiting for a discount the data no longer supports.
For the investor
| Asking/sale gap | Marbella | Benahavís | Estepona | Mijas |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gap | 31.4% | 42.5% | 23.9% | 8.5% |
| Trend | Falling | Falling | Falling | Rising |
Gap = (asking price - actual sale price) / actual sale price. Q4 2025.
The most interesting signal of the quarter is the divergence between Mijas and the rest. In Marbella, Benahavís and Estepona, the gaps are falling: these are markets where sellers have already adjusted their expectations and discipline is rewarded today, not speculation. Mijas is the exception: its gap is only 8.5%, but it is widening instead of closing. It is not an opportunity, but a market where sellers have not yet had to adjust. The key is to enter with precision, development by development, rather than using municipality averages.
One market. Three readings. The data does not take sides, the reader does.
Alfonso Lacruz
To understand why prices are rising, read why prices rise when fewer homes are sold.
Frequently asked questions
Did prices rise or fall in Q4 2025?
Actual sale prices rose in Marbella, Benahavís, Estepona and Mijas, while sales fell.
Can you negotiate much on the purchase price?
The room is closing: on properties correctly priced from day one, discounts are already minimal.
What is the gap between asking price and closing price?
The difference between the price the seller asks and the actual price at which the property sells, as a percentage of the latter.
About the author
Alfonso Lacruz
Naval engineer and market analyst. Over 25 years advising owners in Marbella and Benahavís. Publishes a monthly market analysis with Land Registry data.
The figures are indicative and every property is different: for a specific number, ask for a valuation of your home.
Sources: Spanish Land Registrars' Association (Colegio de Registradores de España, Q4 2025); property portals. Own analysis. Last updated: 6 May 2026.
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