Market · November 2020
What were real estate prices doing in Marbella and Benahavís in November 2020?
Two markets, two different scenarios. A look at asking prices, sold prices and official valuations, with the uncertainty of that moment.
SHORT ANSWER
In November 2020 there were two different scenarios. In Benahavís, both the asking and the sold price curves were flat, and the sold-price trend had started more than a year earlier. In Marbella, sold prices were still rising, with asking prices showing some moderation and valuers anticipating a flattening. In both cases there was a big gap between what was asked and what buyers actually paid.
IN THIS ARTICLE
This is an archive article from November 2020, written at a time of great uncertainty. The data are from that date; for the current picture, see why prices rise if fewer homes sell.
What were we comparing?
The charts show several price-per-square-metre curves. In Benahavís there are two: the asking price published by the portal Idealista (green) and the sold price from the Land Registry (blue). In Marbella there is also a third curve: the average price per square metre from official valuations, published by the Ministry of Housing (red).
| Price curve (Nov 2020) | Benahavís | Marbella |
|---|---|---|
| Asking (Idealista) | Flat, trend began at the start of 2020 | Some moderation |
| Sold (Land Registry) | Flat, trend began over a year earlier | Still rising |
| Official valuations (Ministry of Housing) | Not shown | Valuers anticipate a flattening |
Situation as of November 2020. Source: Idealista, Land Registry and Ministry of Housing, according to the charts in the original article.
What was happening in Benahavís?
Both curves had become flat, but the trend in sold prices had started more than a year earlier, while the one in asking prices began at the start of that year. Prices were moderating and could be affected by the sharp drop in the number of transactions.
And in Marbella?
The situation was completely different. Sold prices kept rising, although the asking-price curve showed some moderation. Despite these rising prices, valuers were starting to anticipate a flattening of the official valuation curve. The market was not easy to analyse because of the uncertainties we were facing.
What was my reading at the time?
Two things stood out. First, a huge gap between asking prices and what buyers were actually paying. Second, Marbella surprised me: prices kept going up while the number of transactions kept going down, which in theory should push prices down. It was something to keep watching.
Marbella really surprises me: prices keep going up while the number of transactions keeps going down, which in theory should push prices down.
Alfonso Lacruz, November 2020
The gap between asking and sold prices is still the key to selling well. We explain it in overpricing your home.
Frequently asked questions
What were prices doing in Marbella in November 2020?
Sold prices kept rising, with some moderation in the asking-price curve, and valuers were anticipating a flattening of the official valuation curve.
What were prices doing in Benahavís in November 2020?
Asking and sold prices were both flat, and the sold-price trend had started more than a year earlier. Transactions had dropped significantly.
Where do the three price curves come from?
Asking prices come from the portal Idealista, sold prices from the Land Registry and, in Marbella, official valuations from the Ministry of Housing.
About the author
Alfonso Lacruz
Naval engineer and market analyst. Over 25 years advising owners in Marbella and Benahavís. Publishes a monthly market analysis with Land Registry data.
The figures are indicative and every property is different: for a specific number, ask for a valuation of your home.
Sources: Idealista (asking prices); Land Registry (sold prices); Ministry of Housing (official valuations). Own analysis. Last updated: 13 November 2020.
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